Mark Twain effect

Mark Twain Effect

Mark Twain effect

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In some stock markets, the Mark Twain effect is the phenomenon of stock returns in October being lower than in other months. The name comes from the following quotation in Mark Twain's Pudd'nhead Wilson: "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."

The 1929, 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes roughly occurred in October.

Evidence in support of this effect was provided by Cadsby (1989) based on data on Canadian stock market.

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